Probabilities and Reins ...

Thursday, March 02, 2006


As soon as I arrive, everything is possible.

Are we just the product of our history, minted by our past, from the day we are born? History is exactly what it means, it can not be changed. Thinking backwards, as a conscious individual we have no control over how our history is initialized, where we are born into. But does that mean its all Brownian motion, that a life is just life and nothing more?

Life is not just something that you let yourself to be taken through, swirls and rapids, and settle to the inevitable looking, all too real, pseudo peacefulness of whatever state it leaves you at. At the soul of it, that is nothing but plain defeat.

Life, at the very least, is not a predetermined course which leaves you no choices. If looked at in a mathematical way, its rather an outcome of a bunch of probabilities. Probabilities laid out in front of you with slider controls, as in front of a music director trying to compose a song. And you can set the probabilities, high, low, medium, a little too much on the edge and so forth and expect the outcome to be in a certain way with high degree of confidence.

As a minor extremist example, say you want to die of lung cancer - take those slide controls, start smoking, you might find it difficult at start, but you can easily get addicted to it, and start yourself on pan, ghutka and what not, might not be so easy, but that stage will pass, and you can be sure with a high degree of confidence that you will be contracted with lung cancer eventually. But you can't be hundred percent sure, but thats the deal with probability. And say you want lung cancer out of your life like plague, again take control, stay clear of all of the above, might not be easy, but you can get yourself to being used to it, and can be sure with a high degree of confidence that you will not get lung cancer, but yeah, not dead sure. An extremist example is an understatement for this one, but the concept should be universally applicable to many aspects of your life.

One important thing to note is, although setting the sliders might seem very artificial and mechanical tweaking with your life, the music produced is real. Either you let the sliders be on their own and don't care or you set the sliders. Both ways the music is real, it becomes your reality, and there is really no way to tell if it could have been only this way. History can't be changed. You will eventually forget that you tweaked the sliders with great effort.

There are many things you can do, be with, or experience, that can possibly leave you pleasantly contented. It might look artificial and hollow. But if you keep doing more of that, with a very high probability that becomes your reality.

And there are many things that you can do, be with, or experience, that can only do nothing but suck out your faith in everything. It might look inevitable. But if you keep doing only that, with a very high probability that becomes your reality. And do you find yourself asking "This is my reality, how can you say my reality is worse and your reality is better?". The question itself is stupid.

Here, it is assumed that a joyously peaceful state is better for human beings than a resignedly peaceful one. But tweaking with probabilities is not fool proof, coz its just a percentage certain. To end this,

There was this math professor and his friend standing at the rails of their office building. Near their campus were a few army establishments. The professor started pondering over some tables and after some quick punches on his PDA, announced,

"You know Hermann, the probability of the next man coming walking through that road below being an army man is very low. And if you think of the event where the next two of them would be army men; even low, three, lesser, four, five, lesser and lesser. And say, the next fifty of them being army men is as meager as one in a few thousands. I can bet a hundred dollars that such a thing would not happen!"

Hermann was silently looking at the road, the professor also turned and looked.

In a few seconds, a platoon of uniformed men marched past the building.

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